Georgia

Polls in Georgia close at 7 p.m., and results will likely follow not long after. However, just a fraction of the vote will be cast today—all told, over four million ballots were cast and accepted in this pivotal state before Election Day. For comparison, that is around 81% of total votes cast in Georgia’s 2020 election. There is a great deal of administrative data about these ballots, particularly since the Peach State provides demographic data, which we use to analyze the composition of the electorate across Georgia as a whole and in a few notable counties. In this post we examine the demographics of mail and early voters by merging Georgia’s absentee ballot file as of today with a snapshot of the Georgia voter file.

As in 2020 and 2022, Georgia is expected to be a critical battleground this November. While there are no marquee Senate contests on the ballot this year, the state’s 16 electoral votes have the potential to decide who wins the presidency in what was the closest state of the 2020 election, decided by just 0.23 percent—or 11,779 votes. 

Four years later, Georgia’s elections are particularly steeped in controversy, and concerns about election integrity, voter suppression, and the autonomy and safety of poll workers continue to dog the election process. Two dozen new election laws have been enacted, changing how elections are conducted in Georgia. These two contests gave us insights into—and data on—the inner workings of Georgia’s 2024 election process, and serve as a useful guide to the November election.