Last updated: Sep 12, 2024

Florida

Memos

State Report: Florida 2024

Following two decades as one of the nation’s premier swing states, Florida was hotly contested in the 2020 presidential election. Donald Trump ultimately won his home state by over three percentage points, a notable step to the right after the former president won the state by just over one percentage point in 2016.

Florida’s provision of data on first-time voters is of particular utility. Using the May 2024 voter file, we discover that the rejection rate for mail ballots in the 2024 Republican presidential preference primary was 2.5 times greater for first-time voters than for returners. This is especially noteworthy because the Sunshine State has entered the 2020s as one of the fastest-growing states in the nation, driven in part by domestic migration, which has significant implications for election administration and outcomes.

Other aspects of voting behavior and policy changes in Florida have contributed to a changing election landscape over the last several years. Major shifts in voter registration and vote mode trends since 2020 may affect how Floridians vote in the upcoming election. This report will analyze the 2020 primary and general elections before turning to contemporary controversies relevant to the 2024 election in Florida.

Memo / August 27, 2024
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State Resources

Department of State

Division of Elections

Data Visualizations

Voter Registration

Last updated: September 12, 2024

This graph shows the change in the total number of registered voters of each party in Florida, between each month in 2020 and the corresponding month in 2024. Voters are split into three categories: registered Republicans, registered Democrats, and all other registered voters. The number of Democrats has dramatically decreased in Florida since 2020, while the number of registered Republicans has grown. In January 2024, there were nearly seven hundred thousand fewer Democrats in Florida than there had been in January 2020, and the gap gradually widened throughout the year, with about eight hundred and forty four thousand fewer Democrats in August 2024 than there were in August 2020. In contrast, the number of Republicans has consistently been about three hundred and fifty to four hundred thousand more Republicans in each month of 2024 than in the corresponding month in 2020. About two hundred thousand more Floridians are registered with a minor party than they were four years ago, while there has been very little change in the number of voters registered with no party affiliation, and both of those figures have remained stable throughout the year.

This graph shows the change in the total number of registered voters of each party in Florida, between each month in 2020 and the corresponding month in 2024. Voters are split into three categories: registered Republicans, registered Democrats, and all other registered voters. ​​​The number of Democrats has dramatically decreased in Florida since 2020, while the number of registered Republicans has grown. In January 2024, there were nearly seven hundred thousand fewer Democrats in Florida than there had been in January 2020, and the gap gradually widened throughout the year, with about eight hundred and forty four thousand fewer Democrats in August 2024 than there were in August 2020. In contrast, the number of Republicans has consistently been about three hundred and fifty to four hundred thousand more Republicans in each month of 2024 than in the corresponding month in 2020. About two hundred thousand more Floridians are registered with a minor party than they were four years ago, while there has been very little change in the number of voters registered with no party affiliation, and both of those figures have remained stable throughout the year.