How did Pennsylvanians Choose to Vote in 2024?

Author: Sina Shaikh

Published: November 5, 2024 (6:00pm)

 

The 2020 election saw a massive expansion of mail, absentee, and early in person voting. Since then, the question of whether people would continue to cast their vote prior to Election Day has remained open. While some states have rolled back eligibility for mail-in voting, Pennsylvania has continued to allow residents to request no excuse mail-in ballots. We took a look at who voted by mail or absentee ballot in 2020 and 2024.

Figure 1 shows the breakdown of registered voters in Pennsylvania and their vote mode in 2020 and 2024. The overall number of mail voters has decreased from 24.8% of registered voters to 19.5%. (Note that in PA, early in person voting does happen but is counted as mail/absentee voting, as the participating voter requests, receives and casts a mail/absentee ballot in person prior to the election. We have also grouped mail and absentee ballot voting for simplicity.) We see that same decrease among registered Democrats, registered Independents, and those not registered with a party. However, mail voters made up a larger percentage of registered Republicans in 2024 than in 2020.  

Image contains four alluvial plots which show the change in vote mode between 2020 and 2024 among Pennsylvanians. The top left plot shows numbers for all PA voters and shows that mail in voting decreased from about 25% of registered voters to 20%. Among Republicans, mail in voting increased from 14% in 2020 to 16% in 2024. Among Democrats the percent voting by mail decreased from 37% to 25%; among Independents and those registered with minor parties, the percent voting by mail decreased from 18% to 14%.

Figure 1. Vote Mode History in Pennsylvania

 

Figure 2 focuses only on Pennsylvanians who voted by mail in 2024. Most voted by mail in 2020, but there were large differences by party. Among Republicans, only about 38% voted by mail in 2020, compared to 70% of Democrats and 49% of Independents. 

Image contains four alluvial plots which show the change in vote mode between 2020 and 2024 among Pennsylvanians who voted by mail in 2020. 57% of all those who voted by mail in 2024 also voted by mail in 2020, compared to 70% among registered Democrats 38% among registered Republicans and 49% of all others. 2020 Non-voters made up 18%, 18%, 16%, and 23% of 2024 mail ballots among all registered voters, Republicans, Democrats, and others respectively. 2020 election day voters made up 20%, 39%, 9%, 16% of 2024 mail ballots among all registered voters, Republicans, Democrats, and others respectively.

Figure 2. Vote Mode History in Pennsylvania, Just 2024 Mail Voters



Put another way, about 45% of those who voted by mail in 2020 have cast their ballot by mail in 2024. Among registered Democrats, about 47% of those who voted by mail in 2020 cast a mail ballot in 2024, compared to 43% and 38% for Republicans and Independents respectively.

So, overall:

  • A lower percentage of people voted by mail in 2020 than in 2024 overall
  • The same was true among Democrats and Independents but not among Republicans, who voted by mail at higher rates in 2024 than in 2020
  • Most Democrats who voted by mail in 2024 did the same in 2020, but a plurality of Republicans who voted by mail in 2024 voted on election day in 2020
  • Just under half of those who voted by mail in 2020 cast a mail ballot in 2024